It was about forty years ago that a coworker and I were on a business trip when we encountered a man in patched clothing, prematurely gray, sitting at a bar, smoking unfiltered Lucky Strikes and nursing a beer. We greeted him, and as he turned in his seat it was obvious his body had been used to hard labor for a long time. His speech was slow, a country drawl dripping from every word.
We discussed a variety of topics, eventually turning to foreign travel. I and my coworker had both traveled internationally extensively; the man had only left the U.S. once, to spend a year in Viet Nam. I had somehow been spared that experience, having been drafted and sent to Europe instead. Walker, my colleague, had served two tours in Viet Nam, earning a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star for valor. I was well-read on the politics involved in the war, and offered my opinions on a variety of topics. Walker had opinions as well, and the man we had joined sat largely silent.
I finally asked the man, whose name I never learned, for his opinion on a matter under discussion. His answer was succinct: “Ain’t Nobody Know Nothin.” We came to understand what he meant. We know facts and numbers and events, but as far as a true understanding of the war, its causes and outcomes, and the life of the people affected, nobody knew anything. I recalled the conversation yesterday as I read more studies and opinions on COVID19, the vaccines to prevent it, how it impacts different people, and realized we are at the same place we were forty years ago about Vietnam. People with absolute prescriptions and mandates don’t know what they’re talking about, and the bureaucrats in medicine and the power-hungry in government had both lied to us too often to be believed now. It’s not that we know nothing, we just know nothing conclusive. When we compel or deny an individual’s rights, we need to be confident in our conclusions. We aren’t there yet, and I don’t know when we will reach that stage.
The most recent conflict is over vaccines. The right to privacy that underlies Supreme Court decisions about abortion rights applies here. We’re a free people, and no one has the right to order us to accept any particular medication. There are two new variants of the virus, Delta and Lambda. Delta appears to be more contagious than the original virus, but there are mixed results on whether it is more dangerous. I know too little about the Lambda variant for me to comment. One thing appears to be good news: while the vaccine may not prevent someone from being infected, the infection is largely asymptomatic and not dangerous to the infected host. The host can infect others, but that is not a major problem except among the elderly.
We’re making the same mistake that we made in early 2020, focusing on number of new infections instead of number of hospitalizations. Infections are up, but hospitalizations are nowhere near what they were last year. Deaths are even rarer. My speculation is that among the vaccinated who are being reinfected, the viral load is much lower. We know that in other viruses, load and severity track so closely that I accept that this reflects not just correlation, but causation as well. Let me be clear: my views on viral load and severity of disease are unproved, as are most views of those who issue orders for others to follow.
The effectiveness of the vaccines at preventing reinfection is probably not as high as was shown during early trials. That’s not unusual, especially with a novel virus and a novel vaccine. Effectiveness at reducing hospitalizations appears pretty good. And, effectiveness at preventing death from the disease looks awesome. Among those not already vaccinated, the vaccine cannot do anything to affect the disease. Thus, there appear to be two groups on which efforts need to be focused: the already-vaccinated and those with natural immunity, and the unvaccinated.
Yes, there are downsides to the vaccines. The chance of someone having a serious reaction to a vaccine is quite limited. If you’re concerned, consult your family doctor. She or he should know far more than your neighbor whose brother-in-law’s dog’s previous owner died after getting a vaccination. There are very few people who should not be vaccinated: people who are pregnant, patients who are immune-compromised, including transplant patients, and people who have auto immune disorders. I do not condone vaccinating anyone under 20, where the death rate is so low that risk is essentially zero. Don’t take my word for it. Go talk to your doctor. Because, ain’t nobody know nothin’.