Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.
The Biden Presidency has an opportunity to FUBAR yet another international situation. After all, he has spent going on $200 billion in support of Ukraine’s resistance to an invasion that Biden himself invited with his “small incursion” remark. His withdrawal from Afghanistan, claiming he had followed Donald Trump’s plan, except the only part he followed was withdrawal. He skipped all other parts of Trump’s plan for milestones, and then lied that his Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Thoroughly Modern Millie, had advised him to do what he did.
Elitists R Us
In typical elitist style, he chose only to deal with the ruling elite without getting ground truth from tactical intelligence. He abandoned $80 billion in equipment, a nice legacy for the Taliban, on his way out of town, by deciding to die on the hill of an international airport in the middle of the capital city of Kabul. Isn’t the capital more important because that’s where all the cool kids hang out?
Then he obliviously pissed off the French big-time by agreeing to cut them out of a deal with Australia with more than $1 trillion. That one he should have noticed, because it had the word Trillion in it. He decided to expand NATO, guaranteed only to piss off Putin as well as Turkey. He’s turned a blind eye to China’s espionage, to the extent that there is about a 99% chance he’s a witting Chinese agent – if he’s witting of anything.
Great News from Ukraine?
Now, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, has pulled out of duty in Ukraine, taking his entire group with him. Putin has bought off Prigozhin, which Biden celebrates. Prigozhin got a deal for himself, but what about the mercenaries? What are the chances that an elitist who doesn’t understand that 8.5% inflation in one month followed by 8.5% inflation the next month does not mean the inflation rate is zero, nor understand that excessive government spending is the cause of inflation (“The spending didn’t cause inflation because we were trying to help people.”) understands the nature of mercenaries and mercenary groups? About zero, I’d say.
Obedezco Pero no Cumplo
Putin is offering to incorporate the Wagner Group into the Russian Armed Forces. Except that mercenaries are mercenaries precisely because they don’t wish to be part of a regular Army. But they’ll do so if ordered, right? Wrong. Individual mercenaries owe obedience to the man paying them, but owe loyalty only to one another. The classic case came during the colonization of Latin America when the Spanish King ordered better treatment of locals and freeing local slaves. The unit leaders on the ground replied, “Obedezco, pero no cumplo.” The meaning is clear: I obey, but I do not comply. I obey because you are my king, and I must. I do not comply because you have no frigging idea what you’re doing, simultaneously ordering more silver production and making it impossible to do so.
So it is with the Wagner Group. Prigozhin has no authority to bind individual mercenaries to a new contract without their consent. This is a concept that does not fit the authoritarian narrative; in fact, authoritarians have no frame of reference to understand it. “No taxation without representation” is the whining of a plebian mob of white supremacist cis-gendered bigots. The administration’s understanding of the events is that it’s good, because it hurts Putin, right? And Zelleskyy can take short-term tactical advantage of the situation.
Misunderstanding? Who, Joe?
I don’t understand enough of the terrain, the weaponry, the personal politics, to predict the end-state of these actions. And, despite an inescapable slide into non-Alzheimer’s dementia, I’m infinitely ahead of the Drooler-in-Chief. The chances of him misunderstanding the situation are somewhere around 1,000%. Without any understanding, he’s likely to make a move ending in catastrophe.
I told clients for decades that the only thing more dangerous than growth is bankruptcy. This is similar.
Be Afraid Very Afraid.
I'm so glad that somebody else remembers this:
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"After all, he has spent going on $200 billion in support of Ukraine’s resistance to an invasion that Biden himself invited with his “small incursion” remark."
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It was almost like he was trying to bait Putin into invading and providing the excuse to continue laundering cash through the country.
I also want to comment on this part:
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His withdrawal from Afghanistan, claiming he had followed Donald Trump’s plan, except the only part he followed was withdrawal.
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Trump's plan had us withdrawing during the winter months when the Taliban is snowed in and unable to move freely across the country. Biden took office and immediately broke Trump's deal by changing the withdrawal date to 9/11 -- which was a terrible idea in every respect.
First, it pissed off the Taliban, who had abided by Trump's deal and not attacked American soldiers.
Second, it delayed the withdrawal until summer, when the Taliban COULD freely move across the country -- and they did, basically gobbling up terrain far more quickly than Biden and his clown show thought they would.
This 'unexpected' pressure as the Taliban encroached on "our" territory forced us to abandon Bagram Air Base along with basically everything that was parked there. (Many people believe it would have been a better move to hold BAB until the very end and evacuate from there, but that's out of my wheelhouse to be honest.)
The actual evacuation (while surrounded by Taliban) from Kabul was a serious shitshow, with the US government paying the Taliban (the people we were JUST FIGHTING) for security during the evacuation -- and we still lost troops to suicide bombers.
So yeah, Biden followed through with the withdrawal, but he did it in the most inept manner possible. All because he didn't want to follow Trump's timeline -- which was in place for a reason.
“Thoroughly modern Millie.” HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!