A week or two ago I read an alarmist column trumpeting that 36 women had experienced either miscarriages or spontaneous abortions after taking a messenger RNA vaccine. It didn’t smell right. Quick look, it seems there are six million pregnancaies every year in the US, about a million elective abortions, about a million spontaneous abortions and miscarriage events, about four million live births. At that point about 35M women had received a vaccine. In a three-week-period the numbers say it’s to be expected, with or without a vaccine. A bigger question is why a vaccination for a disease that overwhelmingly affects mostly the elderly is being given to a woman of child-bearing age who is pregnant? The vaccines have not even had safety testing done on use during pregnancy.
Today I read an article in The Epoch Times, a right-wing publication I regularly read to be sure to challenge any developing echo chamber around myself. I read and watch left-wing news for the same reason. This article reports 966 deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System following administration of messenger RNA vaccines. The mathematical, medical and journalistic malpractice is incredible.
First, the article acknowledges that VAERS is “co-administered” by CDC and FDA. In clearer words, nobody is in charge. VAERS is a voluntary reporting system and can include everything from a sore arm to spontaneous combustion. The deaths are age-distributed the same way they are with COVID19. The easiest explanation is that these people were already infected before getting the vaccine.
Then, the article starts with Percentage Mathematics, PM, which I usually call Probably Misleading. Percentages of percentages can be astronomically high while simultaneously signifying nothing. The most widely-spread such PM is the percentage of people exposed to second-hang smoke dying of lung cancer as opposed to the percentage of all people dying of lung cancer. The measurement was taken among a population that had been exposed daily for more than 30 years to second-hand smoke, and is often cited as “40%.” I’ve had people cite the fact that forty percent of people exposed to second-hand smoke die of lung cancer, claiming to have found this on the official CDC website.
The problem is that epidemiology expresses life-time added risk in percentages. The number of non-smokers who die of lung cancer 1.0%, while those who live for 30 or more years with daily exposure to second-hand smoke die of lung cancer at the higher 1.4%. So, the added lifetime risk is 0.4%, or about the same as the added lifetime risk to males dying of gastrointestinal cancer after a lifetime of consuming folate-enriched spaghetti and bread; the enrichment is intended to protect females of childbearing age. All other activities’ lifetime added risks are described as the pure percentage; only second-hand smoke is treated differently. It’s 0,4%, not 40%. That is not to defend tobacco use; it’s to point out what has to be PM – probably misleading.
Here is where the Epoch Times article goes off the rail.
The 966 deaths represent 5 percent of the total number of adverse events reports. Of those who died, 86, (8.9 percent) died on the same day they got the shot. An additional 129, (13.4 percent) died within one day. An additional 97 died within 2 days, and 61 within 3 days.
This allows the reader to infer that there’s a five percent chance of dying from the vaccine, and/or that there’s an 8.9% chance of dying that very day, and/or a 13.4% chance of dying with a day of receiving the shot. PM. True, but misleading. Also known as fake news.