Before the first U.S. case of COVID19, there was a lot that we already knew.
Ø This is a coronavirus, not the Andromeda Strain
Ø It typically attacks the lungs and often the heart
Ø Bad outcomes are usually seen in older people, people with existing lung, heart and/or kidney diseases, and people with compromised immune systems. Young people are rarely severely affected.
Ø We should expect case fatality rate (CFR) to be quite low, somewhere below one percent, probably closer to 0.1%.
Ø Outdoors is healthier than indoors for people with respiratory viruses. Even a slight breeze will dissipate the airborne mist from a cough or sneeze, and sunlight damages viruses.
We ignored all of that, and started on the basis of Stupid. First, everybody is supposed to stay indoors. Next, we apply the same restrictions to everybody instead of focusing efforts on the known most vulnerable. And, we politicize the science.
COVID19 is a public health issue, and public health is all about numbers. We needed to implement total quarantine on those with compromised immune systems. They can’t be helped by a vaccine. Unfortunately, that means no human interaction without full protective gear. Then, we needed to implement serious quarantine of those over 70, perhaps 75. Quarantine is different from lockdown. It removes the patient from most human interaction. NPo, you can’t go see Grandma.
Next, we try to quarantine those with existing lung, heart or kidney disease. Finally, we leave everybody else pretty much alone. They go to work, to school, live relatively normal lives. People are allowed to shop, eat in restaurants and drink in bars. Food production continues. Shipments of food continue. Except for the absence of older folks in public, it looks pretty normal. Some people get sick and die, but almost no one under 75. People wear masks as a courtesy to others, to protect others from them in case they’re infected.
What we did instead: We shut down the economy, forced everyone indoors, and instilled fear with orders of Obey or Face Mass Death. That was never the case. Yes, nearly half a million Americans have died. The average age of death from COVID19 is the same as the average life expectancy; the simplest explanation is that old people’s deaths are being brought forward by a few months. We put people in nursing homes and ordered the homes to accept people sick with the disease.
We made going to a mosque, temple or church a crime. State by state, selective lockdowns were mandated, often letting a governor’s allies conduct business while mandating that businesses that supported the other party had to watch their life’s savings destroyed. We closed down schools in the name of science. Around the world, young children were known not to be asymptomatic spreaders of the disease. The death rate for youngsters was infinitesimal. Not a single case of transmission from a student to a teacher was documented. Still, we kept children at home, forcing single parents to stay home instead of working. Youth suicide rates skyrocketed, but we kept them from socializing.
When protests against unconstitutional lockdowns were started, they were condemned as ignorant, selfish people who just wanted to get haircuts. Those in charge had paychecks, so there was no problem. Daily, six million people in America had to choose between going out to find day labor, or staying home and watching their family starve. Domestic violence incidents shot up; people could not afford food. Reports of child abuse dropped significantly; most such reports were filed by teachers, who never saw students now and couldn’t help them.
Daily protests and riots claiming racial injustice broke out across the country, but those evidently were not subject to the same sensitivity to the virus as people protesting lockdowns were. Surging mobs broke into stores, setting fires and looting, and in several states, firebombs were thrown at U.S. courthouses. When Federal Agents were brought in to protect the justice system, local mayors demanded they leave because they were the problem. Governors and mayors demanded that their constituents wear masks and avoid gatherings, only to be discovered doing what they forbade others to do.
Several state governors joined the politicization of science by forbidding physicians from prescribing certain medications because the wrong person had suggested using them. Our President started Operation Warp Speed, which resulted in record-breaking time to Emergency Use Authorization for multiple highly-effective drugs. The program was talked down, not because it was bad science, but because someone from the wrong party had started it. Thousands of Americans vowed not to take a “Trump” vaccine. “Following science” had become petty politics.
Not to be outdone, President Trump tried to make the work against the pandemic all about himself. That gave his critics all the ammunition they needed to bring him down and disparage the good work done on ramping up not only vaccines but production of needed equipment.
Throughout the pandemic, we have tossed aside what we knew in favor of starting at Stupid. We knew what to do, but it was far more fun to play politics with the lives of Americans, to exercise extra-constitutional powers because we could. All of this for a disease that 99.65% of people survive. What if it had been the Andromeda Strain?