The Iraq WMD “Lies”
In 2007 a peculiar thing took place, and it disappeared from sight without remark. An ABC Television journalist interviewed the FBI Agent who had debriefed Saddam Hussein about his deception operation to conceal from the world that he did NOT have WMD. This is so contrary to the common narrative that it likely is considered risible by those who support the narrative, “Bush Lied, Men Died.” I don’t know if George W. Bush lied in this or other matters. I do know that the interview was broadcast once and was never picked up by other networks.
The story told by Saddam was incredible yet almost certainly true. He and his senior advisors believed that Iran would attack eventually and doubtlessly effectively without an overwhelming reason not to do so. Both countries had suffered casualties and destruction during the lengthy Iran-Iraq war. While the reason for the conflict was ostensibly control of the Shatt al-Arab waterway formed by the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, the eight-year-long war (1980-1988) created as many as two million casualties on each side and inflamed religious animosity.
Apparent Religious Conflict
Iran is the sole overwhelmingly Shia Islam country in the world. Although Islam originated in what is today Saudi Arabia, missionaries first traveled into Iraq from Egypt. Sunni Islam was the religion. Being smart missionaries, the Egyptians headed for the center of wealth of the country, in what is today Baghdad. At the time the city was likely the largest in the world. The tribes living in that area adopted Sunni Islam. When missionaries from Iran arrived later, the rich folk were all accounted for, so they visited the rural, poorer and more distant lands of Iraq. The rulers of Iraq were thus Sunni, while the larger body of the population, the enslaved, were Shi’ite. That situation remained unchanged for about 1,200 years until the Second Gulf War. The conflict between Sunni and Shi’ite in Iraq is portrayed as religious, while in fact it is as much of the conflict anywhere in the world: the haves versus the have-nots.
In the late 1990s, Saddam became certain that Iran would invade unless it were convinced that Iraq had WMD in sufficient quantity to seriously damage Iran and perhaps obliterate it. Iraq then set out on the most ambitious and successful deception operation ever undertaken in peacetime. It set out to convince Iran that Iraq had WMD, specifically nuclear and chemical weapons. There is a major complication, though, with all deception operations. It is not possible to convince the target of the deception while leaving the remainder of the world aware of the truth. That cannot last more than a few days at most with the best of luck. Therefore, he who sets out to deceive must fool not only the target but virtually everyone else.
The number of individuals who can be aware of the deception is best limited to not more than six or seven. Bureaucracies don’t operate that way. They want oversight at multiple levels of the operation. If an operation involves as many as ten or twelve organizations the problem becomes unmanageable. Therefore, very strict procedures must be followed, and some very senior people are going to have their egos hurt.
Iraq
Back to Iraq. Saddam had a multi-level foreign intelligence organization working for him. The levels were not internal, but external. Some of the agents were at levels where they could significantly influence nation states. Two nations, believed to be sympathetic to Iraq for a number of reasons, were selected to have a witting agent briefed: France and Russia/USSR. These agents knew the truth about Iraq and WMD and worked to convince their own countries of the deception. Everything was going swimmingly until Al Gore lost his presidential election bid. International broadcast media, favoring Gore, portrayed Bush as unintelligent, uninformed and boorish. As the penultimate goal was to have everyone except Iran accept the deception (Iran’s acceptance was the ultimate goal), the emissaries from France and Russia assured Saddam that Bush was unsophisticated and would be easily controlled by France and Russia at Saddam’s behest.
Oops.
French and Russian ability to control Bush proved ephemeral. Bush acted on what he believed to be true. Saddam successfully deceived Bush, who responded to the deception by launching a successful war that overthrew Saddam.
Saddam Hussein had run the most successful deception operation since the 20 Committee during World War II. The Committee was purposed to uncover every German spy in the UK and turn him so that the Allies could control information going to the Axis about Allied plans to invade and liberate the continent. It worked. The name derived from the purpose: Double-Cross, or XX. Roman numerals for twenty.
It saved him from Iranian invasion but caused the US to believe he had nuclear weapons and needed to be relieved of them. One of the greatest successes in deception unfortunately led to one of the worst catastrophes to befall the deceiver.
Perception Management
These are but a few of the difficulties encountered in deception operations, more properly called perception management.. The primary error in Saddam’s execution of the plan was focusing on what he wanted people to believe. That is a common mistake. Ultimately it does not matter what the target of the deception believes; the only thing that matters is what the target does. Thus, a deception operation may be as simple as trying to convince your opponent of the truth. How is this deception? It isn’t. But it employs exactly the same methodology. In fact, convincing a foe of the truth is probably the most difficult form of perception management.
Coming up in February or March: Paid article on industrial espionage, which will probably become a multi-part series.
Geez, Bill. You produce better stuff with your brain on "malfunction" than most people do on full power.
Great read.
Thanks for explaining the roots of the Sunni/Shia hatred. It's always been presented as a religious conflict, but you've opened my eyes.
Worldwide, the have-nots are going berserk and the haves are struggling to control or kill them.
We live in interesting times.