Good to see a new post. A recession is likely here despite full employment. What isn't happening is any increase in productivity and still stubborn supply chains. Inflation eventually ends with demand destruction as witnessed by the decrease in fuel prices due to higher prices and a very real Chinese slowdown. India is benefiting from discounted Russian fuel and has a decent growth path. There will be little US growth in the next year or so and more inflation is likely. All is somewhat relative given nearly all of the West has little choice but to impose inflation as a tax. The gains China had hoped for are collapsing as well as they face great difficulties from their failing policies.
Increases in interest rates hurt the supply side as well as the consumer side. But the astute investors have seized the real estate market and will benefit. And that increases the income gap. Not sure our Congress has a clue as food lines grow. We are nearing the desired breakdown that so many have wanted and we, the people, did it to ourselves. But I do sense real anger building. We shall see.
China needs something to quiet the unrest. Fiscally they seem on the brink of instability due mainly to their zero covid policy that has failed with Omicron. Hard to avoid exposure in stacked apartments with common air shafts. The fuel issue has driving the cost of a container delivery quite a bit, something in your lap. We are now seeing some demand destruction worldwide and the Chinese economy depends on export to fund necessary imports of fuel and groceries. I'm not in China so can't say how the street is really reacting, but their recent blustering to shift domestic attention is scary.
China depends on Western capital and know-how to effectively manufacture stuff. Market uncertainty harms both. We are not investing much and the lack of productivity gains reflect that. The American engine is slowing down affecting everybody.
Obituary is way too soon to say. But the one-child policy is now more than apparent and their youth are as dis-motivated as are ours. We shall see.
Hey, but at least there are no more mean tweets.
Good to see a new post. A recession is likely here despite full employment. What isn't happening is any increase in productivity and still stubborn supply chains. Inflation eventually ends with demand destruction as witnessed by the decrease in fuel prices due to higher prices and a very real Chinese slowdown. India is benefiting from discounted Russian fuel and has a decent growth path. There will be little US growth in the next year or so and more inflation is likely. All is somewhat relative given nearly all of the West has little choice but to impose inflation as a tax. The gains China had hoped for are collapsing as well as they face great difficulties from their failing policies.
Increases in interest rates hurt the supply side as well as the consumer side. But the astute investors have seized the real estate market and will benefit. And that increases the income gap. Not sure our Congress has a clue as food lines grow. We are nearing the desired breakdown that so many have wanted and we, the people, did it to ourselves. But I do sense real anger building. We shall see.
I couldn't bring myself to "like" your prophecy. What do you see as China's future? Do we go from a duopoly to a duobituary?
China needs something to quiet the unrest. Fiscally they seem on the brink of instability due mainly to their zero covid policy that has failed with Omicron. Hard to avoid exposure in stacked apartments with common air shafts. The fuel issue has driving the cost of a container delivery quite a bit, something in your lap. We are now seeing some demand destruction worldwide and the Chinese economy depends on export to fund necessary imports of fuel and groceries. I'm not in China so can't say how the street is really reacting, but their recent blustering to shift domestic attention is scary.
China depends on Western capital and know-how to effectively manufacture stuff. Market uncertainty harms both. We are not investing much and the lack of productivity gains reflect that. The American engine is slowing down affecting everybody.
Obituary is way too soon to say. But the one-child policy is now more than apparent and their youth are as dis-motivated as are ours. We shall see.
Makes sense to me.